By Sunil Sanghavi, NobleAI

Walk past a garden and delight in the smell of jasmine wafting through the air. Step into a spa and immediately relax from the aroma of eucalyptus. Smell chocolate chip cookies baking in the oven. Inside or out, at home or away from home, scents are powerful tools to evoke emotions and drive behaviors, which is why they are a key part of consumer product development.

Of course, scents serve practical uses as well— we’d all rather have fresh smelling bathrooms! The challenge of replicating and mass-producing appealing scents is something that manufacturers strive to perfect whether it’s in air fresheners, house cleaners or cosmetics. In today’s world, chemically produced alternatives to natural fragrances dominate the market. But these synthetic fragrances are under increased scrutiny due to some of their ingredient chemical components.

The global perfume market is expected to outpace general cosmetic market growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% through 2030, according to Grand View Research, a data firm. A sizeable portion of the market is in the small-batch, personalized scent segment, which has long been a blind spot for national manufacturers. Walking this tightrope between market growth and reigning in harmful chemicals is a concern for the industry.

In the European Union, some 40 fragrance molecules are on the chopping block. They will be banned in the near future because of safety and sustainability concerns. These concerns range from the potential to cause allergic reactions to human and environmental toxicity. Many of these chemicals fall in the category of “forever chemicals” they are of special concern due to their long lasting and detrimental impacts on human health. Forever chemicals, otherwise known as per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), achieved the more colloquial moniker because of their persistent ability to survive in the environment. For manufacturers of home and personal goods that incorporate these scents, knowing that these chemicals also thrive and survive in our bodies is clearly of increasing concern. While PFAS levels vary widely from person to person, it’s generally accepted that they are detectable in the blood of 95% or more of the population in industrialized countries. 

Pending regulatory action and increasing consumer desire and demand for safer components has spurred a desire for many companies to replace certain chemical ingredients with natural equivalents or safer chemical molecules. But alternative ingredients that precisely mimic the role of existing compounds were hard to identify… until now. New technology is enabling companies to proactively seek and identify alternatives instead of waiting for pressure from regulators, or worse, watching customers jump ship. Consider these recommendations when considering how and why your company can address the need to update scented product lines. 

Natural vs. Chemical Scents: Some Considerations

While some may assume that fragrances derived from natural sources—floral extracts, essential oils and mineral oils—are preferable; in fact, studies have shown that consumers show no preference between natural or chemically derived products. This is important because the quest to identify safer artificial components means avoiding unnecessary environmental damage that comes from trying to harvest rare ingredients from nature (and of course that process is also more costly)—a win for sustainability.

We now have tools that enable us to find appropriately safe replacement molecules to substitute individual worrisome compounds. This has become dramatically easier and faster with the use of Science-Based AI. Artificial intelligence programs can now evaluate thousands of compounds for safety, efficacy and importantly for consumer products, for “like” matches in formulations to ensure product consistency when swapping out ingredients.  

AI Helps ID Replacement Ingredients

Science-Based AI systems work by analyzing complex datasets to identify toxicity of specific compounds and identify new, replacement compounds that provide the same performance within existing formulations. The process can replace individual costly and time-consuming lab-based experiments. Replacement is possible by training an AI model with relevant scientific knowledge, understanding of physical systems and relevant data sets. When completed, scientists can quickly explore the vast space of possible chemical formulations or combinations and identify compounds that could replace “forever chemicals” and other toxic ingredients without sacrificing performance or quality. 

Why be Proactive? It’s hard to predict exactly when new regulations are coming, and their extent. It is a challenging and expensive process for multinational manufacturers to continuously track the moves of regulators across countries and regions. Certain fragrance allergens are already subject to labeling requirements in specific countries, where they must be listed on the product packaging if they are present above a certain concentration threshold. While the European Union debates when and how to increase restrictions on as many as 10,000 PFAS, increased restrictions are certainly coming. Many product teams around the world are evaluating their product ingredient list against EPA and EU requirements, but it is a slow, manual process which makes staying ahead of the curve near impossible. AI presents an opportunity to get ahead of the issue. 

Fragrance companies already use AI in multiple ways, from sniffing out the scents that provoke desirable behaviors to replicating scents that are soon to be lost to us. According to a survey by Hearst Magazine and MarketCast, 75% of consumers are interested in buying brands that embrace sustainability. Before making a purchase, they want to know if a fragrance is environmentally friendly. The noise around the danger and prevalence of forever chemicals is increasing, and AI is ready to be used as a tool to create safer fragrances. 

The integration of AI for Science into fragrance development offers a transformative solution to the pressing challenges posed by forever chemicals. As regulatory landscapes tighten and consumer awareness around sustainability grows, the ability to swiftly identify safe and effective alternatives through AI becomes invaluable. By proactively adopting AI-driven approaches, fragrance manufacturers can stay ahead of regulatory pressures, meet consumer expectations and continue to deliver delightful scents without compromising on health or environmental standards.

About the Author

Sunil Sanghavi is CEO of NobleAI, a pioneer in science-based AI solutions for chemical and material informatics. He has a rich operating background in deep-tech companies. Most recently, he was senior investment director at Intel Capital, investing in AI/ML hardware and software companies including Motivo, Untether AI, Syntiant and Kyndi.